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2011 Golden Globe Predictions: Best Picture

December 7, 2010

Will The Social Network Upset Inception?

A week from today the embattled HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) will announce the 2011 Golden Globes nominations (for a broadcast airing on January 16, 2011). I don’t tend to put a lot of stock as far as Oscars are concerned; the individual guilds (SAG, Directors, Writers) are the ones to watch, given there is much overlap within the Academy voting ranks. If anything. the Golden Globes are great for thinning out the herd so to speak and getting to watch A-listers of TV and Cinema drunkenly accept awards or if you’re Christine Lahti, Robin Williams problematically accepts your award while you’re in the crapper.

Film

The great thing about the Golden Globes – besides seeing the child of a Hollywood couple during their awkward phase in the role of Mr. or Miss. Golden Globes – is dramatic film work is not privileged over comedic work; the best picture and major acting categories are neatly divide by genre. This avoids the thankless task of pitting an irrepressible well crafted comedy against a stuffy, dour, shoe-in of a British costume drama. I see you, Chicago!

Drama

This race is shaping up to be less of a lock down than I previously thought. The HFPA loves itself some big ass stars, so I assumed this category was Inception’s to lose. Turns out, The Social Network is really putting up a fight. Anyway, while those two are fighting like toddlers over the last juicebox, The King’s Speech or 127 Hours might tip toe away with the Globe.

The overpraised but not entirely overrated - I've mellowed some - Inception

    Safe:

    “The Social Network”
    “Inception”
    “The King’s Speech”
    “127 Hours”

    Reach:

    “True Grit” – seems to be losing steam as we get closer to the award’s season, but don’t count it out.
    “The Fighter – Word on the street is HPFA is all over this one. Still, I put it in my “reach” section because this year’s dramatic field is a veritable clustercuss.
    “The Town” – It’s been a hot minute since this was the talk of the town. Folks might be Hamm’d out at this point, even though he’s not the star.
    “Black Swan” – Portman’s performance might be lauded, but the film itself is in a crowded field. That said, if it had starred Sharon Stone it’d be up for all the awards including categories it wasn’t even nominated in. HFPA loves it some Sharon Stone.

Comedy or Musical

This race is actually rather lackluster. With the “should be” favorite – Toy Story 3 – barely mentioned as a contender. I’m confused by this glaring omission. In my opinion, the wonks are overthinking this category and not really remembering precedent. Usually – though not always – the entries in this category are well crafted summer crowd pleasers and sleepers. Not sure why some wonks are taking the “musical” part of the category title literally and including the poorly reviewed Burlesque on their lists. That dog neither hunts nor feels compelled to pick fleas off its back. (I see you, Redlami)

Jake and Anne on a mountain of a different sort in Love and Other Drugs

    Safe:

    “Love and Other Drugs” – HPFA seems to like the leads well enough. This is edgy enough, but still bland enough fare not to stir up any controversy, unless Hathaway’s bare breasticles are controversial.

    “The Kids Are All Right” – Forget it. This is the one to beat. Annette and Julianne are beloved by the HFPA! And the film’s messaging is timely and badly needed.

    “Casino Jack” – Oh! So difficult. Spacey’s a charmer and a real old fashion Hollywood star in the cabana boy sense of the phrase. And wow haven’t we all missed Spacey? Have you Spacey’s impression of Morgan Freeman?

    Reach

    “Toy Story”
    “Burlesque” – I get it; everyone wants Cher at their parties, even if that means Christina and Eric Dane get to tag along.
    “R.E.D.” – Hey, why not? It was well-received, did decent box office and how else are you gonna get John, La Mirren, Bruce, Mary Louise and Morgan to attend your party?

What are your predictions for this race?

Next…Lead Acting Nods

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10 Comments leave one →
  1. December 7, 2010 11:48 am

    That said, if it had starred Sharon Stone it’d be up for all the awards including categories it wasn’t even nominated in. HFPA loves it some Sharon Stone.

    I can’t even type “LOL” because that term insults how much I actually just laughed out loud.

  2. December 7, 2010 11:57 am

    I would love to see R.E.D. get its propers. It was a fabulously entertaining movie.

  3. December 7, 2010 12:06 pm

    Did anyone other than the HFPA see The Muse?

  4. December 7, 2010 12:34 pm

    I think you absolutely nailed the contenders for Best Picture Drama, with either True Grit or Black Swan rounding at the category.

    The Golden Globes tend to be more oddball in their choices when it comes to comedies though. Like you said about Burlesque, its really all about who they want to attend their party.

    My picks for Best Comedy Drama:

    Toy Story 3
    The Kids Are Alright
    Burlesque (cuz its a musical with Cher)
    Little Fockers (cuz it stars Robert DeNiro and Ben Stiller)
    How Do You Know (cuz it stars Jack Nicholson and Reese Witherspoon)

    Dark horses include Date Night and Due Date, again because of the stars involved, rather than any actual merit.

  5. evmaroon permalink
    December 7, 2010 12:36 pm

    Thank you so much for putting in Spacey’s imitation of Freeman–I never get tired of it! Guess it’s time to break down and go see Inception. I hate movies about dreams because they’re often filled to the brim with lazy writing. I will just get over it.

  6. aliciamaud permalink
    December 7, 2010 12:42 pm

    I’ve avoided seeing Inception for ages because I have read far too many student papers that ended with “And then he woke up and it was aaaaaalllll a dreeeeeeam.” But I’m going to cave and see it soon. Sigh.

  7. December 7, 2010 1:28 pm

    How Do You Know (cuz it stars Jack Nicholson and Reese Witherspoon)

    Good call! I was totally on the fence about this, but you’re absolutely right. Jack and Reese are faves. Little Fockers totally makes sense too, given that DeNiro is getting the lifetime award.

  8. December 7, 2010 9:48 pm

    you mentioning The Muse just inspired a topic for a new blog post: movies I blame awards show for, for making me watching them.

  9. hsofia permalink
    December 8, 2010 12:27 am

    I blame a 4 hour flight on an airplane for seeing The Muse. Ecch.

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